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Joni Salminen Posts

In 2016, Facebook bypassed Google in ads. Here’s why.

In 2016, Facebook bypassed Google in ads. Here’s why.

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Introduction The gone 2016 was the first year I thought Facebook ends up beating Google in the ad race, despite the fact Google still dominates in revenue ($67Bn vs. $17Bn in 2015). I’ll explain why. First, consider that Google’s growth is restricted by three things: natural demand keyword volumes, and approach of perfect market. More demand than supply First, at…

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Buying and selling complement bundles: When individual selling maximizes profit

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Introduction When we were young, me and my brother used to buy and sell game consoles on Huuto.net (local eBay) and on various gamer discussion forums (Konsolifin BBS, for example). We didn’t have much money, so this was a great way to earn some cash — plus it taught us some useful business lessons along the years. What we would…

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Polling social media users to predict election outcomes

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

The 45th President of the USA Introduction The problem of predicting election outcomes with social media is that the data, such as likes, are aggregate, whereas the election system is not — apart from simple majority voting, in which you only have the classic representativeness problem that Gallup solved in 1936. To solve the aggregation problem, one needs to segment…

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Analyzing sentiment of topical dimensions in social media

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Introduction Had an interesting chat with Sami Kuusela from Underhood.co. Based on that, got some inspiration for an analysis framework which I’ll briefly describe here. The model Figure 1 Identifying and analyzing topical text material The description User is interested in a given topic (e.g., Saara Aalto, or #saaraaalto). He enters the relevant keywords. The system runs a search and…

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CLV-pohjainen markkinointibudjetin allokaatio alustojen välillä

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Odottelen, että ilmaantuisi helppo tapa tehdä järkevää markkinointia. Nythän tilanne on niin, että markkinointibudjetit allokoidaan joko fiiliksen mukaan (lehdet, TV, radio) taikka konversiokustannusten mukaan (digi). Eli toisin sanoen jälkimmäisessä tapauksessa lasketaan CPA:ta, kun pitäisi laskea CLV:tä. Miksi CLV:tä ei lasketa? CLV:tä ei lasketa, koska se on niin hankalaa. Pitäisi erottaa ostohistoria ja kytkeä jokainen konversio asiakkaaseen (luokittelu: uusi/vanha), jotta saataisiin…

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Agile methods for predicting contest outcomes by social media analysis

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

People think, or seem to assume, that there is some magical machine that spits out accurate predictions of future events from social media data. There is not, and that’s why each credible analysis takes human time and effort. But therein also lies the challenge: when fast decisions are needed, time-taking analyses reduce agility. Real-time events would require real-time analysis, whereas…

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On complexity of explaining business failure

On complexity of explaining business failure

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Introduction During the research period for my dissertation based on startup failures, I realized there are multiple layers of failure factors associated with any given company (or, in reverse, success factors). These are: generic business problems (e.g., cash-flow) individual-level problems (e.g., personal chemistry) company type problems (e.g., lack of funding for startups) business model problems (e.g., chicken-and-egg for platforms) Only…

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3 teesiä digitaalisen markkinoinnin (ja miksei muidenkin) asiantuntijapalvelujen myynnistä

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

En todellakaan ole myynnin ammattilainen. En ole, koska olen introvertti ja sulkeutunut tyyppi ja — rehellisesti sanottuna — en pidä kovinkaan monen ihmisen seurasta. Näistä piirteistä huolimatta Konvertigon (www.konvertigo.io) toimitusjohtaja väitti, että osaan “vakuuttaa asiakkaat asiantuntemuksella”. Niin tai näin, ainakin noudatan muutamaa perusperiaatetta, joiden olen huomannut toimivan myyntitilanteissa. Ne ovat: Itseluottamus – tähän liittyy esimerkiksi, että osaa yksiselitteisesti kommunikoida lukuja…

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Buying? How to determine the offer price for a website

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Introduction A few years back I was considering of buying a website. In the end, I didn’t end up making the offer, largely because I couldn’t figure out how to calculate the offer price in a plausible way. Since then I’ve had a bit more experience in estimating figures in other contexts, as well as participating in some M&A discussions…

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How to measure media bias?

Published by Joni on March 30, 2017

Mass media is old, and so is their bias. Introduction Media bias is under heavy discussion at the moment, especially relating to the on-going presidential election in the US. However, the quality of discussion is not the way it should be; I mean, there should be objective analysis on the role of the media. Instead, most comments are politically motivated…

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